This morning, the New York Times published a report by the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) challenging the accuracy of economic predictions over the last 14 years.
Do I really need to reiterate how the Fed’s former chief, Paul Volcker, described economists:
“DURING MY LIFETIME, THE SUBJECT HAS BECOME MUCH MORE MATHEMATICAL, MUCH MORE ABSTRACT, AND MUCH MORE USELESS IN TERMS OF CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE PUBLIC POLICY,”Paul Volcker
He went on to say:
“THERE ARE SOME HORRENDOUS EXAMPLES [OF FORECASTING FAILURE], WITH THE RECENT FINANCIAL CRISIS BEING THE MOST OBVIOUS ONE,” “THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF ECONOMISTS PORING OVER THEIR COMPUTERS, BUT I THINK THEY HAVE JUST DEMONSTRATED THEIR INABILITY TO BE FORECASTERS.”Paul Volcker
Depravity Of Reason
Today’s report is evidence of the stubborn, entrenched, and tone-deaf reliance on a steadfast religion of economics, desperately trying to infer causation from correlation, or as I prefer to say, attempt to extrapolate hindsight as the pseudo-science to predict foresight to break the norm.
Worse, the study of economics, relying on data derived from events that have already occurred, violates the laws of nature, in which entropy dictates cause leads to consequence, and by the asymmetry of entropy, not the reverse.
Simply put, one cannot improve economic performance from consequential hindsight. Instead, one must improve, in the words of Albert Einstein, the theory that determines what humanity can discover -causation- to improve economic performance to break the norm.
Furthermore, GDP is as relevant as an indicator of human performance as a score in soccer indicates gameplay quality. Irrelevant, if you never thought about it.
Worse again, what if I told you that the accumulation of money, as remuneration for “free-for-all” vile-maxim of merit in violation of nature’s principles, erodes trust in the renewable excellence of humanity?
Meaning, a higher GDP derived from the exchange of funds not improving human adaptability to nature’s entropy is, in actuality, a measure of the opposite of economic excellence and a more accurate measure of an expedited anthropogenic cascade.
A New Human Theory
We must address the relevancy of human economics, with new rules of our collective household controlling the desired outcome from a real system derived from a theory of humanity subjugated to nature’s principles, and stop the make-believe and faith in a religion of economics that has no leg to stand on, theoretically or empirically.
Using our method:
I would be happy to tell you in detail how. Come prepared to expand your proximal development, like all of ours should, to earn up to the reputation of the smartest animal ever lived.