Is The Tech Bubble Bursting Soon? Should Startups Be More Self-Reliant?

Yes, but what will be bursting again is innovation arbitrage, not the need for innovation.

You should never rely on a rising tide that floats all boats, for it means you have no outlier proposition that stands on its own. Ignore a supposed low tide for the same reason. So, yes, you must always be and remain self-reliant as to how you address a timely customer need in complete disregard of financial arbitrage du-jour. Great investors can see beyond micro-aberrations and focus on the upside of macro.

What is bursting, by the way, is not a tech bubble, but an inability of innovation’s arbitrage to model itself after the vast opportunity for technology innovation that lies ahead. Hence what is appearing is another financial bubble. Venture capital, under its overwhelming collusion on a uniform investment thesis and focus, is, by definition, incompatible with finding the outliers of innovation.

What the press describes as a technology bubble, is, in reality, the cyclical nature of a financial bubble befuddled by yet another stream of false-positive valuations propped up by, and sold to the next in a chain of greater-fool financiers.

Remember what Einstein taught us: “The thesis determines what can be discovered,” and therefore, it is the thesis by which investors select and invest in innovation that defines how big the next bubble will be. These supposed bubbles are entirely uncorrelated to the vast opportunity for innovation that lies ahead.



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